COTRI forecasts 400m outbound trips by 2030


The Chinese Tourism Outbound Research Institute (COTRI) has verified its forecast of 145 million border crossings made by Mainland Chinese passport holders in 2017.

This is split between 69.4 million trips made to destinations in Greater China (48% of total) and 75.6 million to destinations in the rest of the world (52% of total).

For 2018, COTRI has updated its forecast by increasing it from 154 million to 156 million border crossings happening within 2018. This will split into 73 million to Greater Chinese destinations (53%) and 83 million further afield (47%). This follows a particularly successful first quarter of 2018, which has seen 38 million trips made by Chinese nationals, equating to a year-on-year growth rate of 17%.

COTRI forecasts that by 2030 the total number of Chinese outbound trips will reach 400 million, with two out of three going beyond Greater China. The total will be 200 million in 2022 and the 300 million in 2027.

View the IMTJ’s assessment of outbound medical tourism from China.



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